Virginia governor race polls today: Poll,attorney general race

The Commonwealth of Virginia is once again the center of national political attention. In 2025, Virginians will vote for their next governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. These races are often seen as bellwethers for national trends—especially given Virginia’s history of swinging away from the party of the sitting president in its gubernatorial contests.

The two marquee contests heading into November are:

• Governor: Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger vs. Republican nominee Winsome Earle‑Sears

• Attorney General: Republican incumbent Jason Miyares vs. Democratic challenger Jay Jones

(Also on the ballot: the race for lieutenant governor, but for this article we’ll keep the focus primarily on the top‑of‑ticket governor race and the attorney general contest.)

Polling to date provides a useful snapshot of where things stand—though with the usual caveats about margins of error, undecided voters, and last‑minute campaign dynamics.

Governor’s Race: Spanberger’s Lead and Its Evolution

Early Stages: A Tight Start

At the beginning of the year, the governor’s race between Spanberger and Earle‑Sears appeared very competitive. A January 2025 poll found Spanberger ahead by just 42% to 41%, with 13% undecided. This indicated a very fluid race with plenty of room for movement.

Mid‑Year: Building a Lead

By July 2025, the gap had widened. A poll from the Wilder School of Government & Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University reported Spanberger leading 49% to 37% among registered voters. Similar results earlier in July showed a lead of 49% to 37%. These results suggested the Democratic candidate was consolidating support.

Recent Polls: Consistent Lead but Signs of Tightening

• A September poll from Christopher Newport University found Spanberger leading by 12 points (52% to 40%) among likely voters.

• An October 2025 survey from the Wilder School/VCU showed Spanberger ahead 49% to 42% among registered voters.

• The latest Emerson College poll reports Spanberger with an 11‑point lead: 55% to 44% among likely voters.

These numbers show Spanberger maintaining a lead, though some polling suggests the margin may be narrowing slightly as we approach election day.

Key Takeaways for the Governor Race

• Spanberger has built and sustained a lead of roughly 7‑12 points across recent polls.

• The Republican challenger Earle‑Sears has gained some ground in recent weeks but remains behind.

• Undecided voters remain a significant factor in some polls, and shifts among independents and male voters have helped Spanberger. Men now break for Spanberger by six points—a shift from even previously.

• The issues driving the race include cost of living and inflation, immigration, women’s reproductive rights, and concerns over democracy. Rising cost of living was identified as the most important issue for many voters.

• Virginia’s historic pattern: The state’s governor’s race often swings away from the party occupying the White House. That dynamic works in the Democrats’ favour this year, as a Republican occupies the presidency.

• Nonetheless, a lead of ~10 points is strong but not insurmountable—turnout, last-minute surprises, and local elections down-ballot could still matter.

Attorney General Race: From Democratic Advantage to a Tight Contest

Early Momentum for Jones

Earlier this year, the attorney general race between Miyares and Jones appeared favourable to the Democrat. In July, the Wilder School poll indicated Jones at 47% vs. Miyares at 38%. In September, another poll showed Jones leading 48% to 41% among likely voters.

A Shift in Momentum

However, recent polling shows the balance swinging back toward Miyares (the Republican incumbent). The Wilder/VCU October poll found Miyares ahead 45% to 42% among registered voters. Another recent survey showed a tight race: Jones at 49%, Miyares at 47%.

What Changed?

One major variable: a scandal involving Jones. He was revealed to have sent private text messages in 2022 containing violent imagery about political opponents. This controversy has drawn significant media and campaign attention. While the scandal appears to have hurt Jones’s standing in the AG race, its impact on the governor’s race seems muted so far—polls show no major drop in Spanberger’s numbers, suggesting voters may be treating the races somewhat independently.

Implications for the Attorney General Race

• Unlike the governor’s race, which seems to favour the Democrat, the AG contest is trending toward a toss‑up or even a slight Republican edge.

• The closeness of the race makes it one of the most competitive statewide contests in Virginia this cycle.

• Turnout, campaign strategy, candidate reputation, and last‑minute shifts matter greatly here.

• Because the AG contest is less about the top ticket and more about candidate specifics and controversies, it may be more volatile.

Why Are the Polls What They Are?

Voter Demographics and Behaviour

• Many polls show independents breaking strongly for Spanberger, especially in recent months. The reversal among independents has been a key factor in her consistent lead.

• Male voters, younger voters, and suburban voters are trending toward Spanberger in recent polls.

• Republicans face a structural disadvantage in Virginia this year due to the out‑of‑power-party trend in the governor’s race.

Top Issues Driving Voters

According to recent polling:

• Rising cost of living/inflation: Ranked first among issues influencing voter choice.

• Immigration: A growing concern among some voters.

• Women’s reproductive rights: Still a salient issue, though in some polls ranked third.

• Other issues include threats to democracy, crime, education, and taxes.
  These issues favour candidates who frame themselves as pragmatic and concerned with everyday economic concerns rather than purely culture‑war messaging.

Campaign Strategy and Candidate Images

• Spanberger has pursued a relatively centrist, pragmatic message focused on economy, health care, and moderation—appealing to independents and suburban voters.

• Earle‑Sears, meanwhile, is tied more closely to polarising national figures and messages—which may hamper her appeal among moderates.

• On the AG side, Jones’s image took a hit because of the text‑message scandal; Miyares has emphasised experience, incumbency, and stability.

• Polls show that several voters are aware of the AG text‑message issue, though many say it did not influence their choice in the governor’s race.

• Turnout will matter. Off‑year elections often have lower turnout, which can amplify small shifts in voter enthusiasm or mobilisation.

How to Read the Polls: Caveats and Factors to Consider

• Margin of error: Most polls list margins around ±3.5‑4.5 points. When leads hover in that range, races are inherently uncertain.

• Likely vs registered voters: Some polls measure registered voters, others likely voters. The latter are typically a better predictor but also more difficult to classify.

• Timing: Polls taken earlier may not reflect the final weeks of the campaign (debates, scandals, advertising, etc.).

• Undecided voters: Many polls show 4‑10% or more of voters remain undecided. How these voters break can tip an election.

• Turnout assumptions: Pollsters must model who will vote. If their model is off, results may skew.

• Down‑ballot effects and crossover voting: Voters may split their ticket, and localities can shift based on regional issues.

• External events: Late-breaking news, scandals, candidate gaffes, or endorsements can shift dynamics quickly.

Scenario Analysis: What Could Happen?

Scenario 1: Spanberger Wins by Comfortable Margin

Given her consistent lead of ~7‑12 points, the most straightforward scenario is a Spanberger victory for governor. If turnout holds and no major surprise hits, she wins with a single‑digit margin. For the AG race, if Miyares has overtaken Jones or if the race remains tight, a Miyares win would represent a split-ticket outcome (Dem governor, GOP attorney general).

Scenario 2: Earle‑Sears Makes Late Surge

If Earle‑Sears manages to close the gap through key issue resonance, targeted campaigning, or turnout shifts, then the race could tighten substantially or even flip. Given the size of Spanberger’s current lead, this would require a significant shift in just weeks.

Scenario 3: The Attorney General Race Tilts Republican

Recent polling showing Miyares ahead or tied suggests the AG race is volatile. If Jones recovers momentum, Democrats could regain control. But if Miyares holds or widens his lead, Republicans may claim the AG seat—providing a foothold in statewide offices.

Scenario 4: A Democratic Sweep

If Spanberger wins and Jones overcomes his difficulties, Democrats could win governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. This would give them a strong statewide sweep and momentum into 2026. However, given the current state of the AG race, this appears the least likely scenario.

What to Watch in the Final Weeks

• Turnout tracking: Which party’s base is showing up early? Are suburban and independent voters reliably turning out?

• Statewide debates and messaging: How do Spanberger and Earle‑Sears perform in debates and ads? Does either shift momentum?

• Late-breaking news: Especially for the AG race—any further revelations could influence opinion.

• Undecided voters: Polls show roughly 4‑10% of voters remain undecided. Where they break will matter.

• Regional performance: Virginia’s geography is diverse—Northern Virginia suburbs, Hampton Roads, Richmond metro, rural Southwest. Which candidate wins these zones could matter.

• Cross-ticket effects: Are some voters splitting their vote? That could produce non-intuitive outcomes.

• Polling changes: Are new polls showing narrowing or expanding margins? That helps gauge momentum.

The Stakes and Implications

For Virginia

• The governor and attorney general wield important influence over state policy: education, health care, taxes, criminal justice, and regulatory power.

• A Democratic win for governor would likely lead to a more progressive policy agenda in Richmond, while a GOP AG holding might provide checks or divergent direction.

• A split outcome would signal a nuanced electorate—not strictly partisan but selective.

Nationally

• Virginia often serves as a bellwether state. A big Democratic margin could boost the party’s confidence heading into 2026 mid-terms.

• A Republican AG win despite a Democratic governor win would show the GOP remains competitive in statewide offices even in challenging cycles.

• Campaign messaging and turnout patterns in Virginia may influence national strategy about suburban voters, independents, and swing states.

For the Parties

• Democrats: Holding the governor’s seat is a strong footprint. Winning the AG too would deepen control, though the AG race shows the importance of candidate vetting.

• Republicans: While losing the governorship would sting, capturing the AG office would provide a major statewide victory and a base for resurgence.

Final Word

As of the latest polls:

• In the governor’s race, Abigail Spanberger (D) leads Winsome Earle‑Sears (R) by a solid margin—generally 7‑12 points in most recent surveys.

• In the attorney general race, Jason Miyares (R incumbent) is either tied or slightly ahead of Jay Jones (D challenger), marking it as highly competitive and volatile.

• The combination of a reasonably strong Democratic lead for governor and a toss-up or slight Republican edge for attorney general suggests a nuanced electoral dynamic in Virginia this year.

With election day approaching, key wildcard factors remain turnout, late message momentum, and undecided voters. While current data lean toward a Spanberger governorship, the attorney general seat remains very much in play—and late developments could still tilt outcomes.