Jack Ciattarelli: Tight polls in New Jersey governor’s race,Dead heat with Mikie Sherrill

The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race has transformed from a relatively predictable Democratic hold into one of the nation’s most closely watched and unpredictable contests. At the center of this drama is Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican challenger who is now locked in a dead heat with Democrat Mikie Sherrill. What seemed to be a steady lead for Sherrill has eroded in recent weeks as Ciattarelli’s campaign has gained momentum and as shifting voter dynamics and national controversies ripple into Garden State politics.

This article delves into Ciattarelli’s background, the dynamics of this campaign, polling analyses, key issues, strengths and weaknesses, and the broader implications of this race.

Who Is Jack Ciattarelli?

Jack Ciattarelli is a familiar name in New Jersey politics. A former state assemblyman, he is making his third bid for the governor’s mansion. 

• Past Gubernatorial Runs:

  • In 2017, Ciattarelli contested the Republican primary, finishing behind Kim Guadagno. 

  • In 2021, he won the Republican nomination and gave incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy a serious challenge, losing narrowly with about 48.0% to Murphy’s 51.2%. 

  • In 2025, he again secured the GOP nomination—this time with endorsement from former President Donald Trump—and is now vying to unseat the Democrats’ hold on the governor’s office. 

Ciattarelli’s political identity is that of a conservative Republican with a focus on fiscal restraint, tax cuts, and positioning himself as a disruptor to the status quo in Trenton. He consistently emphasizes cost-of-living pressures, utility rates, property taxes, and economic relief for middle-class New Jerseyans.

The Opponent: Mikie Sherrill & Campaign Landscape

Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat and U.S. Representative from New Jersey’s 11th district, entered the gubernatorial race with a strong profile: a former Navy pilot, a graduate of the Naval Academy, and a sitting congresswoman. 

She won the 2025 Democratic primary by securing about 34% of the vote in a crowded field. 

Initially, she enjoyed a commanding lead in polling and strong backing from her party and national Democrats. But a combination of evolving campaign dynamics and controversies has narrowed her margin—and in some polls, put her in a tight race with Ciattarelli. 

One of the flashpoints has been the release of her largely unredacted military records by the National Archives, which some allege to have been improperly disclosed. The Inspector General is now investigating the issue. 

Ciattarelli has capitalized on that controversy, calling for full transparency and tying Sherrill to Washington-based politics and elite interests. 

Further, both campaigns are attempting to link their opponent to less popular figures: Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, while Ciattarelli is painting Sherrill as an extension of outgoing Governor Murphy’s perceived failures. 

The Tight Polls: Dead Heat in New Jersey

One of the most intriguing developments of the campaign has been the consistent tightening of the race in recent polls.

Recent Polls & Trends

• Emerson College / PIX11 / The Hill Poll (Sept 22–23, 2025)
  This poll shocked observers by finding Ciattarelli and Sherrill tied at 43% each, with about 11% undecided. 

• The poll also revealed demographic splits:

  • Among voters under 40, Sherrill leads big (58% to 24%)

  • Among voters over 50, Ciattarelli leads 52% to 36%

  • Women lean toward Sherrill by ~10 points; men toward Ciattarelli by ~12 points

  • Independents heavily favor Ciattarelli (52%–26%)
    
    

• Fox News Poll
  Found Sherrill ahead 50% to 42% among likely voters. 

• Three New Polls (varied sources)
  Multiple recent polls show Sherrill leading by different margins — but none of them with the edges she once held. 

• John Zogby Strategies Poll (Newsweek report)
  Placed Sherrill at 50% vs. Ciattarelli at 42%, with 16% undecided—suggesting she still holds a lead, albeit narrower than before.

• Other Internal / Independent Polls
  Some internal Democratic polls continue to show modest leads, but increasingly with caution. An independent poll (Politico Pro) found them tied. 

Overall, the polls are converging toward a dead heat. The Emerson result is especially notable because it marks the first widely recognized poll that doesn’t put Sherrill ahead. 

Interpretation & Margin of Error

Given typical polling margins of error (often ±3 percentage points or more), such close results suggest that on Election Day, slight changes in turnout, late shifts, or ground game effectiveness could decide the race.

Historically, New Jersey has leaned Democratic, and no party has won three consecutive gubernatorial terms since the 1960s. 

But the narrowing margins and the presence of independent or undecided voters leave room for upside surprises.

Key Issues & Campaign Themes

Economy, Inflation & Cost of Living

A dominant concern in New Jersey is the soaring cost of living—especially utilities, property taxes, energy, and housing. In many polls, voters cite the economy (51%) as their top issue. 

Ciattarelli frequently points to failed energy policies under Murphy’s administration, including delays or cancellations of offshore wind, overreliance on external power generation, and rising utility rates under Democratic governance.

He proposes:

• Banning offshore wind in favor of a diversified energy portfolio (including gas, nuclear)

• Simplifying and lowering income taxes (three brackets, top rate around 5%)

• Reducing corporate business taxes over six years

• Exempting first $100,000 of small business income and payroll from taxes

• Capping property taxes by linking them to assessed home value percentages 

Sherrill counters with her own affordability agenda: shared municipal services, reforming school district consolidation, and addressing utility costs. 

Infrastructure & Gateway Tunnel Project

The Hudson River tunnel / Gateway Project is critical to commuters and regional connectivity. The Trump administration recently announced withholding of $18 billion in funding for the project as part of its punitive approach to states that don’t align politically. 

Sherrill has pledged to “fight tooth and nail” to preserve the project as governor. Ciattarelli, in turn, has blamed her for voting against stopgap funding bills that would keep government and infrastructure projects afloat. 

Government Shutdown & National Politics

The federal government shutdown has become a campaign flashpoint. Sherrill has blamed congressional Republicans (and implicitly Trump’s influence) for botching the process. 

Ciattarelli, however, counters by focusing blame on Sherrill’s votes (or lack thereof) and her alignment with national Democratic agendas. For instance, he has criticized her for voting “no” on stopgap funding bills despite previous positions in Congress supporting government continuity. 

These national dynamics—especially around Trump’s influence—are being wielded by both sides:

• Sherrill tries to tie Ciattarelli to Trump’s controversial stances

• Ciattarelli warns that Sherrill is just another Washington insider in New Jersey disguise 

Military Records Controversy & Character Issues

A major campaign flashpoint is the unauthorized release of Sherrill’s mostly unredacted military records by the National Archives, which included sensitive personal data. The Inspector General is investigating. 

Ciattarelli has demanded full transparency and used the issue to question Sherrill’s handling of sensitive information, while pushing a narrative of comparative integrity and accountability.

Another point of attack is Sherrill’s Naval Academy cheating scandal in 1994, which involved many midshipmen. Although she was not formally accused of cheating, she did not “walk” at her graduation. Ciattarelli’s campaign has demanded that she release her full records and made the issue a focal point of contrast. 

Ciattarelli’s Strengths & Challenges

Strengths

1. Momentum & Poll Trajectory
   The tightening polls show Ciattarelli clawing back ground in what had been a strongly Democratic-leaning race. 

2. Appeal to Independents & Undecided Voters
   In polls like Emerson’s, he leads among independents by wide margins—a critical segment in such a close race. 

3. Democratic Weaknesses & Controversies
   The military records issue, policy gaffes, and messaging missteps by Sherrill provide openings for Ciattarelli to press contrast themes. 

4. Anti-Incumbent / Anti-Establishment Energy
   As New Jerseyans grow frustrated with inflation, high taxes, and utility costs, Ciattarelli’s outsider messaging has appeal.

5. National Attention & Fundraising
   The race has attracted national investment, making this one of the most high-stakes gubernatorial contests in the country. 

Challenges & Risks

1. State’s Democratic Lean
   New Jersey has historically favored Democrats in statewide races, making a GOP flip risky. 

2. Trump’s Shadow
   Being closely associated with Trump is a double-edged sword—while energizing some voters, it alienates moderate and swing voters in a state where Trump’s approval is mixed. 

3. Messaging Discipline
   With a tight margin, any misstep or inconsistency (on taxes, for example) could be magnified by opponents.

4. Ground Game & Turnout
   In a close race, organizational strength, voter mobilization, and local canvassing could tip the balance.

5. Late Surprises
   A scandal, revelation, or external event close to election day could shift voter sentiment in unpredictable ways.

Strategic Outlook & Scenarios

Scenario 1: Ciattarelli Upsets Sherrill

If turnout among independents and moderates surges, or if Sherrill suffers further damage from controversies, Ciattarelli might carry the day—especially if he holds margins in suburban and swing counties.

Scenario 2: Sherrill Holds On

Sherrill maintains just enough support in Democratic strongholds and among women and lower-turnout demographics to eke out a narrow win. A favorable national climate or high Democratic mobilization could tilt the edge back toward her.

Scenario 3: Toss-Up & Surprise Victory

Given how tight the race is, a surprise landslide in a traditionally competitive region or a wave of late undecided voters breaking heavily in one direction could produce a surprise margin one way or the other.

Implications Beyond New Jersey

• Midterm Barometer
  This race is seen by many as a bellwether for 2026—if Republicans can win in a traditionally blue state, it signals possible momentum for the party. 

• Messaging Clarity
  The contest underscores the importance of clear, local messaging versus national partisan narratives. Swing voters may punish candidates they view as blindly tied to national figures.

• Campaign Conduct & Oversight
  The military records controversy and the role of federal agencies underscore increased scrutiny of campaign ethics and transparency.

• Voter Volatility
  The presence of many undecided voters suggests volatility; parties can’t rely solely on base turnout but must actively persuade and retain.

Conclusion

Jack Ciattarelli, once the underdog, now finds himself in the thick of one of the most thrilling gubernatorial matchups in recent U.S. politics. Once safely behind, he has steadily closed the gap with Mikie Sherrill, transforming what looked like a comfortable lead for Democrats into a genuine toss-up.

With polls showing a dead heat, controversies swirling, and both candidates pushing fierce narratives on economy, integrity, and identity, the outcome is anything but certain. The next weeks will test everything from messaging discipline to grassroots organization and voter mobilization.

If Ciattarelli wins, it would be a seismic GOP victory in a state long seen as Democratic turf. If Sherrill holds on, it would show that even in turbulent times, the Democratic advantage in New Jersey remains resilient.