Japanese prime minister: New leadership Shigeru Ishiba,First female Prime Minister

Japan, long under the steady grip of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is now undergoing a significant leadership shake-up. The events of the past year have crystallised into a moment of deep change—not just over who leads, but what Japan might stand for both at home and abroad. Central to this shift are two figures: Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran LDP politician who took power in late 2024, and Sanae Takaichi, a hard-line conservative who has just won the LDP presidency in October 2025, setting her on the cusp of making history as the country’s first female Prime Minister.

This article examines the political background, the dynamics of the recent leadership race, the policy directions, and the implications for Japan internally and in the region.

Background: LDP, Kishida, and Shigeru Ishiba’s Rise

The LDP’s Political Crisis

The Liberal Democratic Party has dominated Japanese politics since its founding in 1955, with only brief interruptions. However, by 2024 it faced serious headwinds: declining popularity, public dissatisfaction over corruption or perceived lack of transparency, and a sense among many voters that the party had grown complacent. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his administration suffered in opinion polls and faced pressure from within the party and from the electorate to renew leadership and policy. 

Ishiba’s Bid and Election

Shigeru Ishiba, long a recognizable figure in the LDP, ran for the leadership in 2024 when Kishida announced he would not seek reelection. Ishiba, a former Defense Minister and a one-time candidate in prior LDP leadership contests, was seen by many as a moderate reformer. In the party vote, he faced several rivals, including Sanae Takaichi, a vocal hardline conservative, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a younger, more reformist figure. Ishiba emerged victorious over Takaichi in a runoff, in a close contest (215 votes to 194) in late September 2024. 

Ishiba’s Mandate and Early Moves

After being confirmed by Parliament (since the LDP had the majority), Ishiba formed his Cabinet on October 1, 2024. Key features of his early agenda:

• Emphasis on defence and security, in response to increasing regional threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. His Cabinet appointments reflected that: foreign minister, defence minister among the more experienced and security-oriented figures. 

• A snap general election scheduled for October 27, 2024, to secure a public mandate after assuming party leadership. 

• Signals of wanting to reform party governance, increase transparency, and reduce factionalism inside the LDP. Ishiba had long been considered somewhat independent of factional heavyweights. 

Constraints and Criticisms

Despite his moderate reputation, Ishiba’s first cabinet had low female representation: only two women among nineteen ministers, down from the previous cabinet. This underscored the ongoing challenge in gender equality and public perception. 

Economic pressures—rising cost of living, inflation, supply chain issues—plus lingering trust deficits due to LDP’s scandals were real constraints on what he could deliver. Also, regional security threats and Japan’s strategic position amid great power competition magnified expectations and risks. 

The 2025 Leadership Race: Sanae Takaichi’s Rise

Candidates and Stakes

By mid-2025, Ishiba’s leadership was under pressure. The LDP had suffered losses in recent elections, and internal critics pushed for new leadership. One key contender was Sanae Takaichi, known for her ultra-conservative views, strong nationalism, hawkish stances on foreign policy, and frequent alignment with the legacy of Shinzo Abe. If she won, she would become the first woman PM in Japan’s history. 

Other contenders included Shinjiro Koizumi, seen as more moderate or centrist; the contest was not just about policies but also about which direction the LDP would take in an era of political erosion. 

Takaichi’s Platform and Political Identity

Takaichi is often portrayed as an ultra-conservative politician. Key components of her platform include:

• Strengthening national security, including closer ties with the U.S. alliance, more assertiveness in regional diplomacy. 

• Expansionary fiscal policy in certain strategic sectors: economic security, AI, semiconductors, defense, advanced medicine. She proposes “crisis management investment” to shield Japan from shocks and strengthen its resilience. 

• Conservative social policies: she has opposed reforms such as separate surnames for married couples, stricter positions on traditional values; her record includes controversial positions on Japan’s wartime history, visits to Yasukuni Shrine, etc. 

During the campaign, she attempted to moderate her image somewhat—presenting herself as a “moderate conservative” in contrast to more extreme elements in LDP. But many observers believe her ideological core remains largely aligned with the hard-right faction of the party. 

The Decision: Takaichi Wins

On October 4, 2025, Takaichi was elected President of the LDP, defeating Shinjiro Koizumi in a runoff. This victory makes her the first woman to hold the LDP’s leadership position in the party’s history. 

Given the LDP’s dominance and coalition strength, that places her firmly on track to be confirmed as Japan’s first female Prime Minister, expected by mid-October. 

Comparing Ishiba vs Takaichi: Continuity, Divergence, and Public Expectations

Policy Differences and Priorities

• Security / Defense: Both Ishiba and Takaichi place strong emphasis on national defense, but Takaichi leans more hawkish and is expected to push harder on realigning Japan’s posture in Asia, increasing defense spending, possibly seeking closer integration in alliance structures. Ishiba also prioritised it but seems more cautious or incremental.

• Economic Strategy: Takaichi’s proposals for “crisis management investment” in strategic tech, biotech, energy, etc., signal a more interventionist economic policy than some expect under Ishiba. Also her proposals include both stimulus and maintaining fiscal prudence in managing debt-to-GDP. Ishiba’s focus is more on stabilisation, regaining trust, addressing inflation and cost‐of-living pressures. 

• Social and Gender Issues: This is a major point of divergence. Ishiba, while not radical in these areas, has been more open (in some cases) to reforms including female emperorship, though still constrained by LDP’s internal conservative bloc. Takaichi has not supported many gender-equality reforms that liberals expect, such as dual surnames, more aggressive female leadership representation. Her record has critics saying her gender-progress is symbolic rather than structural. 

• Historical Memory and Nationalism: Takaichi is more aligned with conservative nationalist positions—on Japan’s wartime past, Yasukuni Shrine, etc.—which could complicate relations with neighbours (China, South Korea). Ishiba, while not wholly distancing from nationalistic currents, has tended to be more moderate or at least pragmatic in foreign policy rhetoric. 

Public Expectations and Risks

The public expects more than just a change in leader. Key expectations include:

• Tackling cost of living / inflation: Rising prices are a global trend, but in Japan, decades of low growth underlie many grievances. Any PM must show tangible relief.

• Stability and integrity in governance: After corruption scandals and scandals involving political funding, people want transparency, accountability.

• Stronger foreign policy in a volatile region: China’s rise, North Korea’s missile program, Russia’s aggressiveness—all pose direct challenges. Tokyo is under pressure to define its role more assertively.

But the risks are also significant:

• Polarisation: Takaichi’s conservative positions might sharpen domestic divides, especially around gender rights and social reforms.

• Diplomatic friction: A more nationalist posture can cause diplomatic tensions, especially with South Korea and China, especially over historical issues or territorial claims.

• Economic strain: Balancing expansionary spending with concerns about debt and inflation is tough. Japan’s public debt is already very large. Missteps could hurt investor confidence.

• Party unity: LDP has internal factions, and leadership transitions often provoke tension. Takaichi must keep together conservative, moderate, and reformist wings if policies are to be implemented effectively.

Implications of a First Female Prime Minister

The potential appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female Prime Minister comes with symbolic weight and practical questions.

Symbolic Importance

• It breaks a long-standing gender barrier in the highest office. Until now, all Japanese Prime Ministers have been male, even as women have made up increasing proportions of other leadership roles globally.

• It could inspire shifts in public perception, perhaps encourage more women’s participation in politics, or push more policy focus on gender equality. However, symbolism alone is limited if not accompanied by policy change.

Possible Constraints

• Takaichi’s past positions have often been conservative with respect to gender reforms, so expectations for rapid change may be tempered. Critics worry she may avoid or even oppose certain reforms. 

• Institutional constraints: the LDP’s conservative base, the bureaucracy, cultural expectations—these often resist rapid transformations in social norms.

• Political resources: To push through bigger reform, she will need strong coalition support, likely also needing to maintain or build alliances with moderates, and manage public support.

Regional & Global Context

Japan does not exist in isolation. Leadership changes here have ripple effects.

• China & East Asia: Japan’s posture toward China will be under scrutiny. Takaichi’s hawkishness may lead to tougher rhetoric or policies that increase tension. At the same time, Japan may deepen cooperation with like-minded democracies (South Korea, Australia, India).

• U.S. Alliance: Strengthening ties with the U.S., particularly in security, is likely to continue. Japan may seek more shared responsibility, more visible contribution in regional security architecture.

• Global crises: Energy security, supply chain disruptions, climate change, technological competition (AI, semiconductors) are global challenges; Japan will need to define its role.

Takaichi’s First Tasks and Agenda

Assuming Takaichi takes office in mid-October 2025:

1. Forming a new Cabinet: Balancing ideological loyalists with moderates, ensuring competent individuals especially in economic, foreign, and defense portfolios.

2. Economic relief measures: Immediate focus likely on subsidies, tax relief, or other interventions to counter rising prices.

3. Strategic investments: Rolling out her “crisis management investment” framework to strengthen sectors deemed vital: semiconductors, AI, nuclear energy or fusion, advanced medicine.

4. Diplomacy and foreign policy redrawing: Perhaps more assertive stances with China, rethinking Japan’s role in regional security, enhancing bilateral or multilateral cooperation.

5. Internal LDP reforms: Managing party unity, perhaps touching factional control, party funding transparency, reclaiming public trust.

6. Gender and social policy: Will be watched closely: commitments here will signal whether her historic appointment will translate into actual social reform.

Looking Forward: Challenges & Uncertainties

While Takaichi’s election marks a milestone, many unknowns remain:

• Parliamentary confirmation and election mechanics: Though likely, confirmation requires maintaining coalition support and possibly making deals with smaller parties.

• Public support over time: Initial approval often dips; managing expectations is crucial. If promises are too ambitious or left unfulfilled, backlash could be severe.

• Balancing conservatism with modern pressures: Japan faces demographic challenges, declining birthrate, aging population, gender participation gaps. Conservative policies that do not address these risks could worsen structural problems.

• Global economy’s uncertainties: Inflation, trade disruptions, competing superpower tensions, energy supply issues—all may limit domestic policy space.

Conclusion

Japan’s political landscape is now at a hinge: the transition from Shigeru Ishiba to Sanae Takaichi signifies more than just a swap in leadership. It reflects underlying tensions within the LDP, at the interface of continuity vs change, conservative nationalism vs modernization, and the delicate balancing act between domestic expectations and regional responsibilities.

If Takaichi assumes power as expected, she will carry the dual burden of breaking symbolic ground while delivering practical results. Whether her leadership will usher Japan into a new era depends less on her gender than on her ability to navigate economic headwinds, regional risks, and the internal contradictions of her party’s ideological wings.

In many ways, this is not just a leadership story—it’s a test of Japan’s capacity to adapt, reinvigorate its governance, and redefine its role domestically and globally.